- US Dow Jones 30 remains in an uptrend; earnings season to offer direction if the multi-month up-trend will remain intact; current price 27,364; price extensions spotted further out towards 27,178 and 28,227 provided price can hold above the 26,533 support;
Global Market Insights:
- US Investment Bank Goldman Sachs Group beat earnings; reports earnings per share $5.81 on $9.461 billion in sales;
- US Retail Sales beat forecast; normally a positive catalyst for US stocks since retail sales are a big part of the US economy; however with pending US interest rate decision due July 31, and markets expecting a rate cut; positive economic data seen as reducing the odds US Fed will act as fast as markets expect;
- US Dollar higher after the strong US Retail Sales; Gold ticks lower on fears US Fed may not move as fast as markets expect to cut interest rates;
- Most European and US stock indices have gained nearly +10% in 1 and a half months; stocks markets at all-time highs; earnings season can put the record move higher at risk of pulling back, but at the same time, earnings season could also be the next catalyst to boost markets even higher;
Indices Daily Trends
- SP500 trending higher; facing resistance at 3023.50, current price 3,019; US earnings season and the outcome over US Fed interest rate decision on July 31st to determine if the trend can continue or if prices will consolidate lower; upside extension 3,019 now reached; further extension towards 3,103 cannot be ruled out provided price can clear above the 3023.50 resistance;
FX Daily Trends
- USD/ZAR trending lower ahead of South African Reserve Bank forecast interest rate cut on Thursday; the rand now has 6 days of gains against the USD; while volatility at lowest in nearly two years suggesting a potential high impact break-out move in either direction may be on the way;
- GBP/USD is at its weakest level so far this year; Brexit uncertainty and seasonal price patterns indicate that the GBP has fallen during August against the USD for the last 5 years;
Commodities Daily Trends
- Platinum +5% last 30 days on supply and demand speculation that the pending lower US interest rates will help boost the global economic growth and increase demand for Platinum use in the manufacturing sector; current price $849 testing key resistance; next resistance seen at $866.50; support $780;
Source: FXGM / Bloomberg