US Market Review 16th June 2021

by Charalambos Constantinides

The Sugar No11 Futures recently broke below a tentative uptrend line that was formed from the bottom of 14.65 of April 1st 2021. The price peaked on the 12th of May at 18.22 and has not tested this levels since then. The price action gave us a lower top on the 2nd of June at 17.90 and is now trading at 17.00 exactly on the 50 Day Moving Average (MA50) that acts as a support for now.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending below the mid-50 level in bearish territory at 44 and is flat.
For the bulls, important resistance levels exist at 17.00 where the MA50 stands, also at 17.90 June 2nd top , and finally at the, 18.23 top of May 12th .
For the bears, important support exists at 16.46 where the Fibonacci 50% retracement level coincides with the MA100, also at 16.02 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level , and finally at 14.68 bottom 14.65 from April 1st.

• It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include building permit and housing start figures from the housing sector. Import and export price index figures are also due out.With the FED in action later in the day, however, don’t expect the numbers to have much impact on the Greenback.

• Major stock markets in the United States finished Tuesday's trading session lower with the meeting between Washington and Brussels in the focus. The two sides agreed to suspend tariffs related to the Boeing Co. and Airbus SE dispute. Meanwhile, on data, the country's Census Bureau reported that business inventories decreased slightly in April.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.27% at the closing bell. The Nasdaq 100 decreased 0.69%. The S&P 500 surrendered 0.20%.

• Retail Sales in the US fell by 1.3% to $620.2 billion in May following April's expansion of 0.9% (revised from 0%), the data published by the US Census Bureau revealed on Tuesday. This reading came in weaker than the market expectation for a decrease of 0.8%.
Further details of the publication revealed that the Retail Sales Control Group declined by 0.7% in the same period and Retail Sales Ex-autos contracted by 0.7%.

• The New York Federal Reserve said on Tuesday its barometer on manufacturing business activity in New York state declined for a second consecutive month in June. The regional Fed's "Empire State" index on current business conditions fell seven points to 17.4, lower than a reading of 23.0 forecast among analysts polled by Reuters.
A reading above zero signals the New York manufacturing sector is expanding.

• Producer prices rose at their fastest annual clip in nearly 11 years in May as inflation continued to build in the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The 6.6% surge was the biggest 12-month rise in the final demand index since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking the data point in November 2010. On a monthly basis, the producer price index for final demand rose 0.8%, ahead of the Dow Jones estimate of 0.6%.

• At 12:30 (GMT) CAD Consumer Price Index (CPI)is expected. This measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling.

• At 14:30 (GMT) US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly Crude Oil Inventories figure is due. This measures the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

• At 18:00 (GMT) US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Economic Projections are expected. This report includes the FOMC's projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years and, more importantly, a breakdown of individual FOMC member's interest rate forecasts.

• At 18:00 (GMT) US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement is also expected. The FOMC usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It's these changes that traders focus on.

• At 18:00 (GMT) US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Federal Funds Rate decision will be publicised. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

• At 18:30 (GMT) US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Press Conference is . The press conference is about an hour long and has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility.

US Indices yesterday:

• Dow Jones -0.27%
• S&P 500 -0.20%
• Nasdaq -0.71%

Sources: Investing.com, forexfactory.com, fxstreet.com, breakingthenews.net