US Market Review 28 April 2021

by Charalambos Constantinides

• According to CME data, WTI futures open interest has continued an upward trend in Q1 2021 with an improving demand picture. The black gold is trading above the 10 day Moving Average (MA10) and 20 day MA. The 10 MA is crossed above the 20 MA confirming the bullish trend, despite the existence of a tentative down-trend line above the current price levels. The price action reached a top at $67.75 and entered a correction that lasted from March 8th until March 23rd. Since then the price has slowly resumed the long term uptrend.
A break above the tentative trendline that coincides with the 61.8% fibonacci extension at $63.70 will signal a continuation of the uptrend and may retest the March $67.70 highs. The market is expecting the weekly inventories report to show a 900,000 barrel drop according to official forecasts, in which case a drop is usually impacting the price positively.

• The US markets will be full of activity for today as Crude Oil inventories open the news sequence , followed by important FOMC Statement, US Federal Funds Rate and the FOMC Press Conference. (Add US Crude analysis here tomorrow morning 28/04/2021)

• At 12:30 GMT Core retail Sales (which exclude automobile sales) and Retail Sales for April in Canada are expected to be announced. The forecast is 3.4% and 4.0% respectively which are both higher than the previous negative results of March.

• At 14:30 GMT Crude Oil inventory levels are expected to be announced which basically is the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week. If inventories drop it signals that there was increased demand for the period. Crude Oil Inventories also affect Canada as one of the biggest producers and consumers of fossil fuel.

• At 18:00 GMT the FOMC will communicate its monetary policy for the US economy and reveal their decision on the Short term interest rates which are the paramount factor in currency valuation. The expectation is that they will be left unchanged amid the corona virus crisis. The FOMC press conference will follow after the announcement as always and all attention will be on the tapering process of the bond buying program of the Fed.

US Indices yesterday :

• Dow Jones +0.01%
• S&P 500 -0.02%
• Nasdaq -0.34%